subject: EU: Climate change will transform the face of the continent posted: Wed, 10 Jan 2007 11:49:04 -0000
[This comes under the "security" section of this list. There is no
doubt that the smooth operation of IT systems will be crucial to
avoid being part of the "much" that "will not survive". There is
also no doubt that the consequences of the forecast changes will have
"very large implications" for the effective provision of IT services.
Service quality may be degraded if the world descends into climate-
induced anarchy. And while I'm here - what sacrifices have *you*
personally made to combat climate change? I don't have a car and I
am a militant recycler. If everyone could make a statement like
that, we wouldn't be here. - Stu]
EU: Climate change will transform the face of the continent
By Michael McCarthy and Stephen Castle
Published: 10 January 2007
Europe, the richest and most fertile continent and the model for the
modern world, will be devastated by climate change, the European
Union predicts today.
The ecosystems that have underpinned all European societies from
Ancient Greece and Rome to present-day Britain and France, and which
helped European civilisation gain global pre-eminence, will be
disabled by remorselessly rising temperatures, EU scientists forecast
in a remarkable report which is as ominous as it is detailed.
Much of the continent's age-old fertility, which gave the world the
vine and the olive and now produces mountains of grain and dairy
products, will not survive the climate change forecast for the coming
century, the scientists say, and its wildlife will be devastated.
Europe's modern lifestyles, from summer package tours to winter
skiing trips, will go the same way, they say, as the Mediterranean
becomes too hot for holidays and snow and ice disappear from mountain
ranges such as the Alps - with enormous economic consequences. The
social consequences will also be felt as heat-related deaths rise and
extreme weather events, such as storms and floods, become more
violent.
The report, stark and uncompromising, marks a step change in Europe's
own role in pushing for international action to combat climate
change, as it will be used in a bid to commit the EU to ambitious new
targets for cutting emissions of greenhouse gases.
The European Commission wants to hold back the rise in global
temperatures to 2C above the pre-industrial level (at present, the
level is 0.6C). To do that, it wants member states to commit to
cutting back emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse
gas, to 30 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020, as long as other
developed countries agree to do the same.
Failing that, the EU would observe a unilateral target of a 20 per
cent cut.
The Commission president, José Manuel Barroso, gave US President
George Bush a preview of the new policy during a visit to the White
House this week.
The force of today's report lies in its setting out of the scale of
the continent-wide threat to Europe's "ecosystem services".
That is a relatively new but powerful concept, which recognises
essential elements of civilised life - such as food, water, wood and
fuel - which may generally be taken for granted, are all ultimately
dependent on the proper functioning of ecosystems in the natural
world. Historians have recognised that Europe was particularly lucky
in this respect from the start, compared to Africa or pre-Columbian
America - and this was a major reason for Europe's rise to global pre-
eminence.
"Climate change will alter the supply of European ecosystem services
over the next century," the report says. "While it will result in
enhancement of some ecosystem services, a large portion will be
adversely impacted because of drought, reduced soil fertility, fire,
and other climate change-driven factors.
"Europe can expect a decline in arable land, a decline in
Mediterranean forest areas, a decline in the terrestrial carbon sink
and soil fertility, and an increase in the number of basins with
water scarcity. It will increase the loss of biodiversity."
The report predicts there will be some European "winners" from
climate change, at least initially. In the north of the continent,
agricultural yields will increase with a lengthened growing season
and a longer frost-free period. Tourism may become more popular on
the beaches of the North Sea and the Baltic as the Mediterranean
becomes too hot, and deaths and diseases related to winter cold will
fall.
But the negative effects will far outweigh the advantages. Take
tourism. The report says "the zone with excellent weather conditions,
currently located around the Mediterranean (in particular for beach
tourism) will shift towards the north". And it spells out the
consequences.
"The annual migration of northern Europeans to the countries of the
Mediterranean in search of the traditional summer 'sun, sand and sea'
holiday is the single largest flow of tourists across the globe,
accounting for one-sixth of all tourist trips in 2000. This large
group of tourists, totalling about 100 million per annum, spends an
estimated EUR100bn (£67bn) per year. Any climate-induced change in
these flows of tourists and money would have very large implications
for the destinations involved."
While they are losing their tourists, the countries of the Med may
also be losing their agriculture. Crop yields may drop sharply as
drought conditions, exacerbated by more frequent forest fires, make
farming ever more difficult. And that is not the only threat to
Europe's food supplies. Some stocks of coldwater fish in areas such
as the North Sea will move northwards as the water warms.
There are many more direct threats, the report says. The cost of
taking action to cope with sea-level rise will run into billions of
euros. Furthermore, "for the coming decades, it is predicted the
magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events will increase, and
floods will likely be more frequent and severe in many areas across
Europe."
The number of people affected by severe flooding in the Upper Danube
area is projected to increase by 242,000 in a more extreme 3C
temperature rise scenario, and by 135,000 in the case of a 2.2C rise.
The total cost of damage would rise from EUR47.5bn to EUR66bn in the
event of a 3C increase.
Although fewer people would die of cold in the north, that would be
more than offset by increased mortality in the south. Under the more
extreme scenario of a 3C increase in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990,
there would be 86,000 additional deaths.
